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Non parametric estimation for data streams.

Séminaire
Nom intervenant
Arthur Leroy : Cluster-Specific Predictions with Multi-Task Gaussian Processes
Résumé
Cluster-Specific Predictions with Multi-Task Gaussian Processes 
 
A model involving Gaussian processes (GPs) is introduced to simultaneously handle multitask learning, clustering, and prediction for multiple functional data. This procedure acts as a model-based clustering method for functional data as well as a learning step for subsequent predictions for new tasks. The model is instantiated as a mixture of multi-task GPs with common mean processes. A variational EM algorithm is derived for dealing with the optimisation of the hyper-parameters along with the hyper-posteriors’ estimation of latent variables and processes. We establish explicit formulas for integrating the mean processes and the latent clustering variables within a predictive distribution, accounting for uncertainty in both aspects. This distribution is defined as a mixture of cluster-specific GP predictions, which enhances the performance when dealing with group-structured data. The model handles irregular grids of observations and offers different hypotheses on the covariance structure for sharing additional information across tasks. The performances on both clustering and prediction tasks are assessed through various simulated scenarios and real data sets. The overall algorithm, called MagmaClust, is publicly available as an R package.
 
Amir Aboubacar  Remis à plus tard
 
We address news challenges related to non parametric estimation when the data are of complex nature (massive, sequentially observed according  time and space and infinite dimensional).  We focus on online estimation of the conditional variance Var(YIX = x), where the response Y is a real random variable and the covariate X takes values in an infinite-dimensional space. An estimator of the conditional variance is introduced when a sample  is supposed to be sequentially collected from a stationary and ergodic process satisfying a non-linear heteroscedastic functional regression model with martingale difference errors. Asymptotic results are established with convergence rates, whereas simulation studies show how the proposed estimator performs in terms of reducing the computational time without decreasing significantly the accuracy compared to its competitor. An application to real environmental data is also carried out to illustrate the online prediction of the volatility of maximum ozone concentration.
 
Lieu
Amphi C2.0.037
Date du jour
Date de fin du Workshop